According to DRAMeXchange, the NAND Flash supplier's 3D 64-layer products have stable yields and higher-than-expected output. However, due to the fact that the global economic situation at the end of the year is still not optimistic, Intel CPU out of stock and Apple's new machine shipments are not as expected, the peak season is not prosperous. Looking forward to the first half of 2019, although the original factory has a conservative attitude towards expanding production capacity, and even began to curb expansion, due to the impact of the off-season and the high inventory level, the oversupply situation will only be more significant. The first quarter NAND Flash is estimated. The contract price will fall further, with a decline of about 10%.
DRAMeXchange pointed out that in terms of eMMC/UFS, before the end of the year, Chinese smartphone manufacturers focused on destocking and adjusting production scale, thus deepening the fourth-quarter contract price decline, while inventory de-conversion will continue into the first quarter of 2019, leading to eMMC/UFS. The contract price is likely to show a drop of nearly 10% in the first quarter.
Observing the price trend of SSD, notebook shipments in the first quarter of 2019 are expected to fall by more than 15% from the fourth quarter of this year. Although the PC SSD loading rate and capacity continue to rise, it is still difficult to prevent the total demand and price from going. Weak, Client SSD contract prices are expected to continue to fall nearly 10%.
From the demand assessment of various products in 2019, due to the growth of server demand, the Enterprise SSD market has become a battleground for all suppliers, making price competition more intense, and the first quarter server demand is also affected by the off-season. The impact is expected to fall by more than 10% in the first quarter.
Further observation of the demand for channel demand, although the supply of materials from the module factory is sufficient this year, due to the continuous decline in prices, in order to avoid the loss of price, the module factory must have the pressure to purchase the goods in the month, even through the sale of secondary products to maintain Lee, this move will further disrupt the market price. Compared with the profit level of leading manufacturers, the profit performance of the module factory has dropped significantly this year, showing a situation of thinner and thinner. It is difficult to expect improvement in the first half of 2019. .