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  • The demand for smartphones in the fourth quarter of 2018 is not prosperous

    Global market research institute Jibang Consulting issued the latest report, pointing out that this year, the smartphone market gradually recovered in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the total production volume was about 380 million, driven by new machine distribution and festival demand stocking. The quarter increased by 8%. Observed that in the fourth quarter, although Apple and Huawei new machines contributed to the total production, the market for Apple's new machine, whether XR/XS/XS MAX sales are not as good as expected, the next adjustment of Apple's new machine shipments Quantity, therefore, the estimated total production will be flat with the 380 million support in the third quarter.

    According to the trend of demand in the smart phone market, due to the demand trend of the smart phone market, coupled with the product maturity (Mature Stage), coupled with the high similarity of the brand's products, lack of novel themes to attract buying, etc., consumers change their willingness to change Passive; from the perspective of brand market share, due to competitors, in order to highlight the brand value, whether it is investing more money in high-end mobile phones for research and development, or by improving the specification to create a cost-effective image, the brand factory The profitable space is constantly being squeezed. Moreover, due to the recent Sino-US trade war, the cost of mobile phone manufacturing is rising due to exchange rate fluctuations or component price adjustments, which makes it more difficult for brands to maintain profitability and deepen the development of the market.

    In terms of production volume, Samsung and Apple will compete for the first place in the global market in the fourth quarter.

    In terms of the performance of the top six brands in the world, Samsung is still ranked first in the world in the third quarter, with a total production volume of about 74.5 million, and the market share is almost 20%. In addition to supporting the performance of the existing J series (Junior), Samsung also released the flagship Note 9 series in advance to promote brand sales. However, due to factors such as the difference between the new flagship machine and the previous generation, the overall production The amount of contribution is limited. In the fourth quarter of Samsung, the focus will be on the A-series, which emphasizes cost-effectiveness. We look forward to boosting the fourth-quarter buying momentum through the multi-lens selling point. It is estimated that the fourth quarter will have the opportunity to maintain the production level in the third quarter. The total production volume of 75 million units is the target.

    In recent years, Huawei has been highly developed and self-made, and has successfully entered the international arena by actively investing in chips and innovative specifications. In the product segment, through the complete layout of high school and low-end, continue to expand the market share of the domestic and overseas markets. In the third quarter, the production volume benefited from the channel demand for new machines, and then climbed to the peak, up 44% from the same period of last year. The total production reached about 55.5 million, surpassing Apple for two consecutive quarters, ranking second in the world. . Jibang Consulting estimates that in the fourth quarter, under the continuous fermentation of new machine effects, the production volume is expected to be the same as that in the third quarter, and the annual target of 200 million annual production is expected. However, it remains to be seen whether the recent warnings from the market that the channel inventory is high will affect the production volume of Huawei's fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.

    Apple redefined the price range of the iPhone's high-end series through three flagship new machines released in the third quarter, and once again challenged the market for high-end mobile phone price acceptance. Broadly speaking, the iPhone's two AMOLED new machines (iPhone XS/XS Max) are priced higher than the general market expectation, reducing consumers' desire to purchase; the low-priced LCD version (iPhone XR) is affected by the trade war, resulting in a stronger dollar. The contribution of pricing to sales in non-US regions will be affected. In addition, the main production schedule of the low-priced LCD version falls in the fourth quarter, contributing little to the total production in the third quarter. However, Apple's price reduction for the old model will help its sales performance. Overall, Apple's production in the third quarter was about 47.1 million, the world's market share was the third, and Huawei was behind for two consecutive quarters; the fourth quarter performance benefited from the new machine production schedule, which will reach this quarter. At the peak of production, it is estimated that the total production in the fourth quarter will have an opportunity to stand at 76 million, and Samsung will compete in the world's first place in the season.

    In the third quarter, Xiaomi produced a total of 31.7 million pieces, which is about the same as that of the second quarter. It has a double-digit growth. Due to the slowdown in the growth of China and India, the main demand market, Xiaomi has adopted a more conservative production and preparation strategy in the fourth quarter to avoid the pressure of high-inventory inventory, and it is estimated that the total production will fall in the fourth quarter. Within 30 million, the production volume of 120 million units will be seen throughout the year.

    Based on the marketing strategy of this year and next, Xiaomi continues the low-margin marketing guidelines, in addition to the cost control of the components, but also through the brand localization (such as India, India, India), to obtain manufacturing costs and tariffs, etc. Advantages, however, excessive emphasis on thin interest rates, changes in the external economic environment may lead to increased costs in the manufacturing process, which in turn has a significant and adverse impact on the overall business.

    The overall production volume of OPPO and vivo in the third quarter was driven by the flagship new machine and channel distribution, each with more than 30 million performances, a slight increase compared with the second quarter. In recent years, OPPO and vivo have put more effort into the specification research and development, and the marketing strategy of large-capacity memory configuration has successfully won the market name. However, as the main sales markets are concentrated in China and Southeast Asia, the major markets are facing a growth recession. Or the limited growth space, coupled with the impact of the people's replacement cycle, will make OPPO and vivo face greater challenges in maintaining production performance. Jibang Consulting estimates that the total OPPO production in the fourth quarter will be 23% lower than the third quarter, estimated at 24.5 million. It is estimated that vivo will have a production performance of 24.1 million, which is 20% lower than the third quarter.


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