Insufficient supply of Intel CPU affects notebook shipments, threatening to further impact memory prices
According to the latest survey by Jibang Consulting, the third quarter is in the peak season of notebook sales. The original Intel platform, Whiskey Lake, is also expected to be mass-produced in the third quarter. However, from the shipment status of PC OEMs, Intel’s new platform is still Insufficient supply continues, and it will seriously affect the shipment planning of the notebook industry in the second half of this year. Jibang Consulting also revised the estimated growth rate of notebook shipments this year to a negative 0.2%, and this lack of supply is likely to further impact the memory price.
At present, the main reason for the continued shortage of Intel's supply is still unclear. Jibang Consulting pointed out that this situation not only occurred in the improved version of 14nm++, but also the 14nm+Coffee Lake product line that has been in production for more than half a year. Since this product is one of the existing mainstream CPUs, it has a huge impact on the current notebook market. Jibang Consulting estimated that the shortage of Intel CPU supply led to a gap of about 5% in the notebook supply in August, and the gap in September increased to 5-10%. The supply gap in the fourth quarter may be more than 10%. According to the information in the supply chain, the shortage of the new platform may not continue until the first half of next year.
Memory prices will fall, the main chip supply is insufficient, and the PC DRAM price will be lowered.
Insufficient supply of Intel CPUs will not only affect the storage price in the second half of the year, but also affect the memory price. Jibang Consulting pointed out that the current memory industry will experience a price reversal after being affected by oversupply after experiencing tens of consecutive quarterly price increases in DRAM. Jibang Consulting originally estimated that the price decline of PC DRAM in the fourth quarter was 2%. However, due to the lack of supply from the Intel platform, the demand for the notebook market was weak. Under the premise of further reduction in PC DRAM consumption, the price decline may be more widened.
On the other hand, the NAND Flash market is also suffering from the lack of supply of Intel's new platform. Under the impact of insufficient supply of Intel's new platform, PC OEMs may be treated conservatively on the market's sales demand, which will lead to SSD. In the half year, it may face a situation in which the peak season is not prosperous, which may cause the price decline of the SSD in the fourth quarter to be greater than that in the third quarter.
In the server field, it is now the conversion time between Grantley and Purley. According to the SAR consulting survey, a small number of OEM customers are facing the problem of longer delivery of the Purley product line. The follow-up observation is focused on the lack of supply of Intel's new platform. Whether the situation will expand in the server market, if the follow-up situation is intensified, the server shipments may also be affected. This affects the memory products including DRAM and NAND Flash more than the notebook. If the server memory requirements are also revised, I am afraid that the overall memory price decline will be accelerated.