In the second half of the year, the NAND Flash market will be relatively flat, and the 64/72-layer 3D NAND yield and output of suppliers will continue to increase. The market will tighten from the originally expected supply contraction to the state of supply and demand balance. The price will continue to fall.
Looking back at the NAND Flash market situation in the first half of 2018, due to the traditional off-season impact and the stable expansion of 64/72-layer 3D NAND capacity, the contract prices of various products have fallen for two consecutive quarters, and each supplier also used this period. Provide high-volume products with price incentives to attract customers to increase carrying capacity to stimulate further growth in demand during the peak season, while slightly slowing this year's expansion plan, trying to help prices continue downward trend into the second half.
However, from the perspective of demand, although the third quarter is a traditional peak season, demand from smartphones, laptops, and tablet PCs shows seasonal growth of 0-1%, 0-1%, and 9-10%, respectively. In plain terms, suppliers tried to stimulate demand through further price cuts, but they also made prices fall more than previously expected.
Fourth quarter prices continue to fall, but must observe Apple's new machine sales performance
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, although there is not much new capacity on the supply side, the 64/72-layer product yield of the supplier is expected to be close to or exceed 80%, reaching a mature state; the supplier is ready to add or transfer Production capacity to the 96-generation process generation, driving the continuous growth of bit output.
As for the demand side, in the case of weak notebook computer growth, lack of highlights in smart phone hardware specifications, and lack of mobile power, demand growth will be difficult to catch up with supply growth. Price may further decline, and it is expected that the decline will be even greater than in the third quarter. Significant. But what needs to be observed is that if the sales of new Apple machines are healthy, it is expected to slightly reduce the price drop in the fourth quarter.
Strong earthquake in Osaka has limited impact on Toshiba and NAND Flash supply is flawless
On June 18th, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred in Osaka, Japan. The Toshiba NAND Flash factory in Yokkaichi city also had four levels of shock. Toshiba stopped the inspection immediately after the earthquake and completed the inventory of damaged wafers on June 19. The affected wafers were limited in quantity and could be reproduced and returned to the market for sale. This had little impact on the market supply and the factory quickly returned to normal operation.