Due to the fact that the server's Fulfillment Rate has increased from quarter to quarter, the tight supply situation at this stage has the opportunity to ease in the second half of the year.
Although the contract price in the first half of this year increased by 10% compared with the second half of last year, with the DRAM factory adjusting the proportion of server products, the average supply compliance rate has now approached 80%. Although it is still tight, this year's situation is more optimistic than ever. .
In the third quarter, the price of 32GB server modules shipped to first-line plants is still estimated to have 1~2% upside, and the price is expected to reach US$320; at the same time, the increase in the supply rate will also make the price increase slow down, making the second line Factory benefits. Overall, the price range for the third quarter contract price will not be much different.
Secondly, as penetration rates of Intel's Purley and AMD Naples platforms increase, the penetration rate of stand-alone capacity and 32GB product lines will increase in the second half of the year, so the overall order volume in the second half of the year will remain at the level of the first half of the year. Among them, stocking for Intel's new solution still maintains a certain scale, and shipments are still concentrated in North American and Chinese data centers. According to a DRAMeXchange survey, the current penetration rate of Intel's new platform has exceeded 50%. It is expected that the fourth quarter will be close to 80%, and the penetration rate of the overall 32GB server module is expected to exceed 70% by the end of the year.
From the point of view of memory process planning, this year will still focus on 20nm output. In conjunction with the new platform solution, the stocking momentum for high-capacity server modules will continue into the end of the year. In the server memory process, the proportion of advanced process products remains low. After entering the 17nm and 18nm nodes, the miniaturization technology becomes more difficult. In addition to Samsung's large-scale production of 18nm node server products, the remaining DRAM makers are expected to maintain the reliability of the entire server memory product (Product Reliability). The quarter will gradually increase the proportion of advanced process products.